Analysis of Prelims Paper I

The GS Paper for the Prelims 2016 threw up some real surprises. It broke away from the earlier conventions. The most important features of the paper are as follows:

• Prime focus on current affairs, both national and international
• Very few questions from the subjects like Geography and Polity
• Very few questions that are core to any subject. 
• Shift from concept oriented questions to fact oriented questions  

The following is the detailed break-up of the questions asked from various subjects. As I told before, since many questions are general, it is difficult to include them within particular subjects. 

History

A total of sixteen questions came from History. Out of these, six questions were from modern history, five from ancient/medieval history and five from Art & Culture. While the questions from modern history were simple, those from other areas were relatively tough.

Geography

Just five questions were asked totally from this subject and those too were not really core to the topic. Many of those had a connection with the current aspects like those on river-linking and shale gas sources.

Polity 

It consisted of again five questions. All of those were from the functional aspects of the Constitution and none from the philosophical parts like the Preamble, Fundamental Rights etc. Questions were asked about Parliament, Executive and the Local Bodies and these were conventional in type.

Economics

Ten questions were asked from this subject. But only two were to the core i.e. questions on capital budget and budget deficit. The rest were related to the current aspects of national and international importance. This includes the technological and administrative reforms taken up in sectors like banking (Questions on Payment banks, Core banking solutions, MCLR etc.)

Science & Technology

It consisted of eleven questions. Except a question on virus, all were related to current aspects. It spanned the various important technological fields like space-technology, bio-technology, military technology, Information Technology and Electronics. Greater focus was given to scientific advancements in India or to those which India is related to. Significantly my earlier post of S&T contained some of these information.

Environment

This subject was one of the prime contributors to the Prelims with a total of thirteen questions. But none of them were related to the science related aspects like ecology or biodiversity. All were based on national and international programmes/agreements. Significantly my earlier post on Environment contained most of these information.

Current Affairs

As told before, this formed the major part of the paper. A total of forty questions were asked from Current Affairs. Of these twenty-two were related to national affairs while eighteen were related to international affairs. Apart from these, many questions from subjects like Economics, S&T and Environment were related to Current Affairs.

Summing up, the pattern of the Prelims Paper I is as follows:

Subject	Number of Questions
History	16
Geography	5
Polity	5
Economics	10
Environment	13
Science & Technology	11
Current Affairs	40
Total	100

Prelims also the Mains way?

The changing nature of Prelims implies that it is also going the Mains way. General Studies for Mains (especially GS II and GS III) heavily rely upon Current Affairs. The areas asked for the Prelims - 2016 are similar to those generally asked for the Mains, except that they were referring to some specific facts. Let us now see the two most important question types in Prelims Paper - I

I. Government schemes, institutions and Acts 

A major portion of the paper has been dedicated for Government schemes, institutions or Acts They are as follows:

1. 'Stand Up India' Scheme

2. 'Mission Indradhanush'

3. Food Safety and Standards Act

4. Green India Mission

5. Gram Nyayalayas Act

6. SWAYAM

7. Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana

8. Atal Pension Yojana

9. Bureau of Energy Efficiency

11. 'DigiLocker' facility

12. 'Payment Banks'

13. Ujjwal Discom Awaas Yojana (UDAY)

14. Rashtriya Garima Abhiyaan

15. Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana

16. National Ganga River Basin Authority (NGRBA)

17. Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme and Gold Monetization Scheme 

II. International agreements/organisations/reports

International agreements/organisations/reports seem to be the next big part. Most of these are either economy or environment related. 

1. Food and Agricultural Organisation 

2. Doing Business Report

3. Trans Pacific Partnership

4. India-Africa Summit

5. The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB)

6. UN REDD+ scheme

7. Greenhouse Gas Protocol

8. Agenda 21

9. Base Erosion and Profit Shifting
10. New Development Bank

11. Gulf Cooperation Council

12. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

13. International Solar Alliance

14. European Stability Mechanism

15. UNFCCC

16. Sustainable Development Goals

17. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

18. International Financial Corporation

19. WTO

20. UN Convention to Combat Desertification

21. IMF

22. Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)

23. International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC)

A candidate who is well acquainted with the day-to-day affairs would find the questions easy, even though he/she is not well aware of the basic concepts. But, it doesn't mean that you can ignore the concepts and study only current affairs for the next time. We can never take UPSC for granted. The important message is that the subject matter for Prelims and Mains is almost becoming similar and the only difference is in the way you approach the two. While we need to study the vital details for Prelims, there should be a holistic approach for the Mains. This implies that our preparation strategy should be focussing the Mains from here onwards.

Cut-off for Prelims

Prelims 2016 is assumed to be a bit tougher compared to Prelims 2015. Hence there is a high chance for the cut-off getting lowered. A 100-105 range is most probable. But, as we know this exam is synonymous with surprises and uncertainties and hence there can be wide variations. Let us hope for the best, but prepare for the worst too..

Global Statistics and Reports

Let us study some important reports or surveys brought by important institutions across the world in this post. They serve as basic standards for individual countries to work upon and re-orient their policies.

World Development Report
It is an annual report published since 1978 by the World Bank. Each WDR provides in-depth analysis of a specific aspect of economic development. The 2016 report titled Digital Dividends assembles the best available evidence on the Internet's potential impact in the world. The digital economy has been deepening in countries like India, but the greater automation is leading to inequalities in labour market.

Global Economic Prospects
The World Bank's twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects examines growth trends for the global economy and how they affect developing countries.The World Bank has downgraded its global forecast 2.4% from 2.9% due to sluggish growth in advanced economies, weak global trade

World Economic Situation and Prospects
It is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN/DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the five United Nations regional commissions under UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC)

Doing Business Report
It is an annual report published by World Bank since 2004 where the countries are ranked according to the ease of doing business. It takes into account 10 parameters like starting a business, registering property, getting credit, getting electricity etc. India has improved its rank to 130 from 134 last year.The improvement in two indicators, ‘starting a business’ and ‘getting electricity,’ pushed India up the ladder

World Economic Outlook
It is a survey conducted and published biannually by IMF. It portrays the world economy in the near and medium context, with projections for up to four years into the future. According to the recent update the global growth rate is projected to be 3.2% for 2016 and 3.5% in 2017. According to it, India, growing at 7.5% will be the fastest growing major economy in 2016-17 .

World Investment Report
It is published annually by UNCTAD since 1991. Each year´s Report covers the latest trends in foreign direct investment around the World. According to the 2016 report, US tops in FDI inflows while India is placed at the 10th position. The report describes about the role of MNCs and the issues related to their ownership or origin with respect to taxation.

Global Competitiveness Report
It is an annual report published by the World Economic Forum, a Geneva based non-profit foundation. The countries across the globe have been ranked based on the Global Competitiveness Index since 2004. According to the 2015-16 Report, India has jumped up 16 positions to rank 55th in the world. Switzerland has retained its position as the most competitive economy in the world.

Global Risk Report
It is an annual study published by the World Economic Forum ahead of the Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland. It identifies the global risks that could play a critical role in the upcoming year. According to it, climate change poses the greatest risk in 2016. On the economic front, deflation is the risk of highest concern for doing business in India

Human Capital Report
The World Economic Forum’s Human Capital Report ranks 130 countries (Human Capital Index) on how well they are developing and deploying their human capital, focusing on education, skills and employment. India is placed in the 105th position according to the latest report since it could optimise only 57% of the human capital endowment. Finland has bagged the top spot.

Asian Economic Outlook Report
It is an economic publication by Asian Development Bank that provides a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic issues in developing Asia, including growth projections by country and region. It has downgraded its economic projection for Asia, but considers South Asia marking good growth lead by India.

Global Innovation Index
It is an annual ranking of countries by their capacity for, and success in, innovation. It is published by Cornell University, INSEAD, and the World Intellectual Property Organization. It was started in 2007. Switzerland has topped the chart in the 2015 ranking while India is at the 81st position out of a total of 141 countries. But India has retained its top spot in South Asia.

World Trade Report
It is an annual publication from the WTO. It aims to deepen understanding about trends in trade, trade policy issues and the multilateral trading system. The theme of this year’s report is “Trade in Natural Resources: Challenges in Global Governance”

Human Development Report
It is an annual report published by the UNDP. It was developed in 1990 by the two eminent welfare economists, Mahbub Ul Haq and Amartya Sen. It measures development based on three important parameters - health, knowledge and standard of living of the people. The Scandinavian nation Norway has topped the chart while India languished at the 130th position out of a total of 188 nations. The huge inequalities in educational and health outcomes and gender differences have pulled back India.

World Environment Outlook
It is a series of reports on the environment issued periodically by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). The upcoming GEO-6, expecting to be launched in mid-2017, will build upon regional assessment processes and create a comprehensive picture of the environmental factors contributing to human well-being.

Global Hunger Index
It is a multi-dimensional statistical tool developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute to asses the situation of hunger in global nations. It was first published in 2006. The focus of the 2015 Index has been on armed conflict and chronic hunger. India has been ranked 55 in the list. According to it while one-sixth of the total population in India remains undernourished, one-fourth of the children are malnourished.

Global Peace Index
It is compiled by the Institute of Economics and Peace in consultation with global peace experts since year 2007. While Iceland is the most peaceful nation, Indian figures in the 141st position out of a total of 162 countries. In South Asia, it lags behind Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

Corruption Perception Index
It is an annual survey by corruption watchdog Transparency International since 1995. According to the latest report (CPI 2015), Denmark is the "cleanest" nation, while India figures at rank 76 out of a total of 168 countries. The CPI generally defines corruption as "the misuse of public power for private benefit."

World Press Freedom Index
It is an annual ranking of countries across the globe prepared by the body Reporters sans Borders. While Finland has topped the list for the sixth consecutive year, India is ranked at the 133rd position among 180 countries across the world.

Environment Performance Index
It was developed by Yale University and Colombia University and is in practice since 2002. The EPI measures national and global protection of ecosystems and human health from environmental harm.Switzerland and the Scandinavian countries have topped the list while India is placed at the 155th position out of 178 countries in the 2014 EPI.