Population growth - the features and factors

Topic : Demographics (Prelims)/Population and associated issues (Mains GS Paper I)

Now let us do a little bit of data mining. Population studies comes with chunks of information that is quite difficult to analyse. The biggest problem is what sources to depend upon. The best method is to use the latest official data for your analysis. I would suggest the Census of India, the Sample Registration System (SRS), and the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) as the documents to depend upon.(the recently released Socio-Economic Caste Census also seems to be a good one). But since they come up with a lot of raw data, the challenge is to choose the useful information and to interpret those.  

To begin with, let us study about the various dimensions of the population growth in India.  As a matter of fact, India recorded a population of 127,42,39769 on last July 11 ie the World Population Day. With a growth-rate of 1.6 per cent a year, she is set to become the most populous nation overtaking China by the year 2031. 

Phases of population growth - The democratic transition model.

The growth rate of population is characterised by 3 main parameters :

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) : the number of live births occurring per 1,000 mid-year total population, in a given geographical area.

Crude Death Rate (CDR) : the number of deaths occurring per 1,000 mid-year total population, in a given geographical area.

Natural Change (NC) : CBR - CDR (measured per 1000 population). This denotes the net increase in population.

The different phases of population growth have been depicted in the following model.

Phase I - High stationary. Both CBR and CDR high and almost equal.

Phase II - Early expanding. Declining CDR on account of better health facilities that improves the life expectancy of the most vulnerable demographic group - children. But CBR remains the same since it requires behavioural changes for its control. This phase is marked by a rapid increase in population.

Phase III - Late expanding. CBR declines on account of better economic conditions, improved women's status and access to contraception. Still it is considerably higher than CDR resulting in a moderate population growth.

Phase IV - Low stationary. The population stabilises with both CBR and CDR being equal and low.

Now where is India placed in this model. For this analysis, we consider the decadal growth rate of population (ie increase over a 10 year period that coincides with the Census).

Phase I -  the period till 1920 when the decadal growth was either very low or even negative due to factors such as famines and epidemics.

Phase II - 1920 - 1980. Though slow in the initial decades, population increased at a rapid pace with the highest decadal growth of 24.80 during the 1961-71 period. 

Phase III - After 1980, the rate has been steadily declining and has reached 17.64 in the 2001-2011 period. 

Thus we can say that India is in  the IIIrd Phase of Democratic Transition. It is assumed that the population will get stabilised and reaches Phase IV by 2045. But a few are also arguing that this would get delayed further by a decade.

Determining growth - the alternate method

There is another way to determine population growth using the following two parameters:

Total Fertiltity Rate (TFR) : the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age.

Replacement Rate (RR) : the number of children each woman needs to have to maintain current population levels or what is known as zero population growth for her and her partner. In developed countries, the necessary replacement rate is about 2.1. The extra .1 child per woman is due to the potential for death and those who choose or are unable to have children. In less developed countries, the replacement rate is around 2.3 due to higher childhood and adult death rates.

Now Growth Rate can be approximately the difference between TFR and RR. This implies that as the TFR approaches the RR, the population is assumed to be stabilised. 

In India, the Sample Registration System gives the official data for birth, death and fertility rates. According to SRS-2013, the TFR in India is 2.3. The good news is that all but nine states have achieved a rate below this. Most of the states in the south and west have low TFRs while the EAG (Empowered Action Group - includes the states of Bihar, MP, UP, Rajasthan, Odisha, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Uttarakhand) states plus Assam have the worst values. While West Bengal records the least TFR at 1.6, the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have values of 3.4 and 3.1 respectively. This implies that growth rate is high in many states in northern and eastern India, while it is low in the southern and western States.

Population stabilisation through the National Population Policy, 2000 (NPP)

The NPP was launched in 2000 with three broad objectives, which are as follows:

Immediate - Address the unmet needs of contraception, healthcare infrastructure and health personnel and to provide integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child health.

Unmet need represents those sexually active women, who do not want more children or want to delay the next child, but still do not have any access to any contraceptive methods. 

The methods include contraceptive pills, condoms and intra-uterine devices (copper T) for spacing between pregnancies while female and male sterilisation (known as tubectomy and vasectomy respectively) are two permanent techniques. The family planning techniques are skewed towards sterilisation, that too female sterilisation thus restricting the choices of an ordinary woman. In addition to the National Family Welfare Programme (NFWP) , the GoI has introduced the Reproductive and Child Health (RCH) to fill this anomaly. But, it requires a behavioural change through proper IEC (Information Education and Communication)

Medium-term - Bring TFR to replacement levels by 2010 through implementation of inter-sectoral operational strategies. This objective is yet to be achieved as TFR hovers around 2.3 now.

Long-term - Population stabilisation by 2045, at a level consistent with sustainable economic growth, social development and environmental protection.

Other factors affecting the population growth

Here we discuss three indicators that have a bearing on the population growth. However, they are better identified as socio-economic indicators of a region. 

1. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) - Number of infant deaths per 1000 live births. (Infant implies below one year age). 

2. Child Mortality Rate or Under 5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) - Number of child (under 5 years of age) deaths per 1000 live births.  

In India, southern and western States have been performing well while the EAG (Empowered Action Group) states and Assam have the worst indicators. As per the Sample Registration System (SRS) 2013, the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) of India is 40 per 1,000 live births while the Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR)  is 49 per 1,000 live births. The Millennium Development Goal - 4 (MDG 4) envisages to reduce child mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. For India, the target is an IMR of 29 and an U5MR of 42. Considering the current levels, India will fall short of its targets.

But 15 States/UTs have already achieved IMR of 29 while 11 have achieved U5MR of 42. Kerala tops in both the indicators, with a value 12 and 14 respectively, while the states of Assam and Madhya Pradesh are the worst performers in both the categories.

Another important observation is that the neo-natal deaths (ie. below one month) account for around 56 per cent of Under-5 deaths in India which is much higher than the global average of 44 per cent. The progress in reduction of neo-natal mortality (below one month) has been slow and this is affecting India's achievements in the other brackets. As per the “State of the World’s Mothers Report, 2013” , India carries the greatest "birthday mortality risk" with more than three lakh newborns dying on their first day, every year.

The major causes of neonatal deaths are Infections such as Pneumonia, Septicemia and Umbilical Cord infection; prematurity i.e birth of newborn before 37 weeks of gestation and Asphyxia i.e. inability to breathe immediately after birth that leads to lack of oxygen.

The major causes of child and infant mortality are neonatal causes, pneumonia  and diarrhoeal diseases

3. Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) - annual number of female deaths per 100,000 live births from any cause related to or aggravated by pregnancy or its management (excluding accidental or incidental causes). The age bracket is generally 15-49 years.

As per the SRS 2012, which is the latest available data, the Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) in India is 178. The Millennium Development Goal - 5 (MDG 5) envisages to reduce maternal mortality rate by three-fourths between 1990 and 2015. In the case of India, this transforms into an MMR of 109 by the end of 2015 which remains an impossible task considering the current levels.

But three states - Kerala, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have achieved the goal. While Kerala tops the list with a value of 66, Assam languishes at the end.

The major medical causes of maternal deaths are haemorrhage, Sepsis, Abortion, Hypertensive disorders, Obstructed labor and “other causes”  like anaemia

Besides this, some of the socio economic determinants of infant, child and maternal mortality are illiteracy, low socio-economic status, early age of marriage, lack of women empowerment, poor environmental conditions e.g. sanitation, hygiene etc, lack of potable water, high parity, preference for home deliveries by family members or village dai and poor access to health facilities etc.

Under National Health Mission (which has been formed by integrating NRHM and NUHM), key steps have been taken to reduce IMR, U5MR and MMR. The major programmes are :

Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) - Promotion of institutional deliveries.

Janani Shishu Suraksha Karyakram - To supplement cash assitance under JSY to mitigate the burden of out of pocket expense incurred by mother and new-born

Navjaat Shishu Suraksha Karyakram - To promote basic new-born care and resuscitation

Integrated Management of Neo-natal and Childhood Illness (IMNCI)

India faces a double challenge - of stabilising the population, and ensuring that they grow healthy. Currently the population is stuck up in a vicious cycle of weak mothers giving birth to weak children. This trend need to be done away with, to achieve a healthy population that would steer the nation to glory.

Next : The composition of Indian population