Science & Technology for CSE

What is science?

The word science can be defined in many ways.  It had its origin from the Latin word "Scientia" that simply means "to know". But since then, it has branched out into different areas encompassing the whole world around and within us. Generally, science is defined as the medium through which we analyse our various observations. As an illustration take the case of rotation of the Earth. In ancient times, it was assumed that the Sun moved around the static Earth from East to West causing day and night. It was after the Heliocentric Theory of Copernicus that people came to believe that it was the Earth's rotation (and not the Sun's movement) that caused day and night. Thus Science has come up to solve many puzzles that confronted man.

What is technology?

Technology is defined as the application of science. It is the art of applying scientific knowledge to practical problems. For example, if the laws of motion or gravitation are basic science, then space technology is its application. Similarly bio-technology is an application of biology or life-sciences. Acquisition of technical knowledge and invention of new products and processes have greatly improved man's quality of life. 

Science and Technology for the Civil Services Examination

While the Humanities subjects like History, Geography, Polity and Economics are considered as the traditional components of the Civil Services Examination (CSE), Science & Technology is rather an unconventional one. But the recent years have witnessed an increasing significance for this subject in the CSE. From analysing the question papers (Preliminary) of the last 3 years, the Science questions contribute to almost one-fifth of the total questions asked. Thus there is a gradual change visible in the pattern of the CSE.

How to study?

One good advantage for this topic is a good conversion ratio i.e. the ratio between the effort you put in and the output you get. Unlike the other topics, there is less scope of diversifying the type of questions in S&T. Hence if you are thorough with the basic concepts in Science, it is easier to score marks and the effort required is comparatively less compared to other subjects.    

The types of questions asked from S&T can be categorised into 3 kinds:

·         Questions based on basic-science: - Candidates need to have a good understanding of the basic science concepts. Questions like the science behind rainbow, ball-bearings in bicycles or the features of viruses which were asked in previous years can be included in this category.

·         Questions on science in daily-life: - This tests the observation and the scientific attitude of the candidate. Questions like the working of a washing-machine dryer or precautionary measure against sun-stroke can be included in this category.

·         Questions on recent technology: - This part requires the knowledge about the recent advancements in the fields like space, biotechnology, Information Technology etc.  Questions on the Higgs Boson or those about the GM crops can be included in this category.

What to study? – The syllabus

The single most challenging factor for the CSE is its vast syllabus. Hence we need to be careful in selecting the topics that we require and smartly weed out the rest. This can be done based on the SYLLABUS as notified by the UPSC. The syllabus for Science & Technology is as follows:

Preliminary Examination:

·         General Science

Main Examination:

·         Science in daily life

·         Advancements in sectors like IT, Computers, Space technology, Bio technology, Nano technology etc.

·         Indigenisation of technology including the contribution from Indians.

·         Intellectual property rights.

One notable feature of the Examination is the greater importance of life-sciences, both at the Preliminary and the Main level.  Life-sciences imply the science related to living beings – micro-organisms like bacteria, plants, animals including human beings.  Some important areas are epidemiology (i.e.  study on diseases), agricultural technology etc.

Where to study from? – The source

The biggest problem confronting the aspirants is the lack of proper study/reference material for S&T. Unlike the other topics, Science is taught as separate subjects (Physics, Chemistry, Zoology and Botany) in the academic level. Hence, it is difficult to point out a single source for preparing for the CSE. Information need to be collected and collated from multiple sources which is a crucial step in the preparation.

The following sources are recommended:

·         NCERT books on Science: This is for studying the basic concepts in Science. Class IX and Class X are a must read. They touch upon almost all the topics on basic science. Presentation is simple and precise.

·         Electronic and printed publications that deal with applications of science in daily life: Websites like the “Wikipedia” or “howstuffworks” or sections like the “Science Corner” that comes up in “The Hindu” news-paper are worth reading.

·         Newspaper and journals: This is for updating the latest information on advancements in the technological sector.  This is a step by step process that requires real effort.    

Topics for Science & Technology

Rather than studying Science and Technology separately, it is better to link them together. Studying the basic science topics together with their technological areas would provide the required flow to the subject. Rather than mugging up things, it is important to generate interest in the topic so that we can sustain the learning process throughout.

Following is a rough plan for the subject.

Part	Basic Science	Technology
I	- Motion - Earth and Universe	- Space Technology
II	- Matter - Heat, Light and Sound	- Energy Technology - Information Technology - Nano-Technology
III	- Living world - Human physiology	- Life-Sciences - Bio-Technology

Watch out for more information on S&T here......

The Millenium Development Goals

What are the Millennium Development Goals?

The concept of Millennium Development Goals or MDGs originated in the Millennium Declaration of the UN General Assembly in the year 2000. It consisted of eight goals, that were framed to address the different socio-economic-environmental issues in different parts of the world. The member nations of the UN were to achieve these goals by the year 2015. The eight goals are as under

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger
Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education
Goal 3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women
Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality
Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health
Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and TB
Goal 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability
Goal 8: Develop Global Partnership for Development

Eighteen (18) targets were set as quantitative benchmarks for attaining the goals. A revised indicator-framework drawn up by the Inter-Agency and Expert Group (IAEG) on MDGs came into effect in 2008. This framework had 8 Goals and 21 targets.  It is as follows:

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

• Target 1A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day
• Target 1B: Achieve Decent Employment for Women, Men, and Young People
• Target 1C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

• Target 2A: By 2015, all children can complete a full course of primary schooling, girls and boys

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

• Target 3A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005, and at all levels by 2015

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality rates

• Target 4A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate

Goal 5: Improve maternal health

• Target 5A: Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio
• Target 5B: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases

• Target 6A: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS
• Target 6B: Achieve, by 2010, universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it
• Target 6C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

• Target 7A: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs; reverse loss of environmental resources
• Target 7B: Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss
• Target 7C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation
• Target 7D: By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum-dwellers

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

• Target 8A: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system
• Target 8B: Address the Special Needs of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs)
• Target 8C: Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing States
• Target 8D: Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures in order to make debt sustainable in the long term
• Target 8E: In co-operation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable, essential drugs in developing countries
• Target 8F: In co-operation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications

Where India stands in achieving the MDGs?

India has not endorsed this revised framework of 2008, but is following the MDG 2003 Framework. It includes all the eight goals, but only 12 targets. The other Targets has been discarded either due to their irrelevance w.r.t India or due to the non-availability of supporting data. 

According to the latest official report, India's progress towards achieving MDGs is as shown below:

GOAL 1: ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER      TARGET 1: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day      On -track      TARGET 2: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger      Slow or almost off-track       GOAL 2: ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION     TARGET 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling      Moderately on-track      GOAL 3: PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY AND EMPOWER WOMEN      TARGET 4 : Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015      On - track      GOAL 4: REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY    TARGET 5 : Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the Under- Five Morality Rate      Moderately on – track due to the sharp decline in recent years.      GOAL 5: IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH    TARGET 6 : Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio      Slow or off-track      GOAL 6: COMBAT HIV/AIDS, MALARIA AND OTHER DISEASES    TARGET 7 : Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS      On-track as trend reversal in HIV prevalence has been achieved     TARGET 8: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases      Moderately on-track as trend reversal has been achieved for Annual Parasite Incidence of Malaria and for prevalence of TB      GOAL 7: ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY     TARGET 9: Integrate the principle of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources.      Moderately on-track     TARGET 10: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation       On-track for the indicator of drinking water but slow for the indicator of Sanitation     TARGET 11: By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers      The pattern not statistically discernible      GOAL 8: DEVELOP A GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR DEVELOPMENT     TARGET 12 : In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications      On-track

India population - some key finds

Topic : Demographics (Prelims)/ Population and associated issues (Mains GS Paper I)

In this section, we investigate about some of the important features of the population. Again we would be depending upon the Census data for our analysis.

Sex-ratio (or female sex ratio)

• It is the number of females per 1000 of males.
• Sex ratio in India is 940 according to Census 2011. It was 933 according to Census 2001 ie the ratio has improved. (A latest update to Census 2011 has determined the sex-ratio as 943)
• The rural sex-ratio is 947 while the urban sex-ratio is 926.
• State-wise, Kerala records the best sex ratio with a figure of 1084 while Haryana is the worst performer with a figure of 877. Moreover, only Kerala and Puducherry are the states/UTs that comprises of more females than males.

Child-sex ratio 

• It is the number of females per 1000 males in the age group 0-6 years of the population.
• Child-sex ratio in India is 914 according to Census 2011. It was 927 according to Census 2001 ie the ratio has declined. (A latest update to Census 2011 has determined the child sex-ratio as 919) 
• Mizoram with a value of 971 is the best performer, while Haryana with a value of 830 is the worst performer.

The above data implies that, though the sex ratio has improved from the previous decade, it is set to dip in the future decades due to the effect of a falling child sex-ratio. Another observation is the poor sex-ratio in urban areas compared to rural areas. This is mainly attributed to urban in-migration that is mainly constituted by the rural male youth.

Reasons for neglect of girl-child and and low child sex ratio

• Patriarchal mentality prevalent in the society that believes the girl child to be a burden. In many societies, lineage and inheritance runs through the male line.
• Lack of education and poverty, especially in rural areas.
• Exorbitant dowry demand. 

This leads to the neglect of the girl child right from her birth. This has resulted in umpteen number of female foeticides/infanticides in India. This has been further catalysed by

• Small family norm - if every family is to have fewer children, there is a greater anxiety that at least one of them should be male. 
• easy availability of sex determination tests and pre-conception sex selection facilities.

Programmes/policies

• Beti Bachao Beti Padhao (Save girl child, Educate girl child) - to address the dipping child sex-ratio and empower the girl-child in the country.
• National Policy for the Empowerment of Women, 2001 and other women empowerment programmes.
• Pre-Conception and Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques Act, 1994 - For regulation and prevention of misuse of diagnostic techniques and prohibition of sex selection.

The following are important initiatives to ensure safety and protection of women

• Domestic Violence Act, 2005
• Prevention of Women Against Sexual Harassment at Work-place Act
• Criminal Law (Amendment) Act - stringent punishment for sexual harassment included in the Code of Criminal Procedure. Age of consensual sex raised to 18 years.
• Nirbhaya Plan - has an important component in ensuring the safety of women in public transport.

Literacy rate

Who is considered a literate ?
Any citizen who is at least 7 years old and who can read and write in any language.

Data on literacy rate

• Literacy rate of India is 74.04 % according to Census 2011. This was 64.8 % in 2001.
• Male literacy rate is 82.14%, while the Female literacy rate is 65.46%.  Significantly, the females who became literate during the last decade has outnumbered the males. But gender gap in outcomes still persists as the data shows.
• State-wise Kerala recorded the highest literacy rate of 93.91% while Bihar, with a value of 63.82% is the worst performer. 
• Again, Kerala tops in female literacy rate (91.98%), while Rajasthan has the lowest value (52.66%)

A low literacy rate has resulted in not so good socio-economic indicators like high population growth, ill-health etc. Moreover the persisting gender gap (that is more than 10%) in literacy has resulted in gender inequality in all sectors. 

Programmes/policies:

• Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan - Universalisation of primary education
• Education Guarantee Scheme, "Back to School" camp - for school drop-outs
• National Literacy Mission - or Saakshar Bharath - for adult education ie for those above 15 years of age.

Urbanisation

India's urban areas have acted as the engines of growth, no surprise we witness expansion of urban-settlements.

What is an urban settlement?
The Census of India considers 3 criteria to identify an urban area.

• Minimum population of 5000
• Minimum density of population of 400 person per square km
• At least 75% of the male working - population should be involved in non-agricultural activities.

Such an area is considered as a Census town.

Further, the Government can give recognition to Census towns under a law or statute. It can also declare any cantonment (military) area as urban. Such areas are called as Statutory towns and may consist of urban bodies like municipalities, corporations or notified town-area committees.
According to Census 2011, India consists of 4041 Statutory towns and 3894 Census towns.

Data on urban population

• Urban population in India is 31.16% of the total (Census 2011). This was 27.78% in 2001. 
• The urban population added in the last decade outnumber the rural population added.
• State-wise, Maharashtra has the highest absolute population while Sikkim has the least.
• In percentage terms, Goa tops the list with 62.17% of its total population as urban, while Himachal Pradesh has the lowest value of 10.04%.
• The huge in-migrations to cities have resulted in sprawling of urban areas (with a core and suburbs), otherwise known as urban agglomerations. These have increased from 384(in 2001) to 475 (in 2011).
• Million cities(with a population of more than one million) have become 53.
• Megacities that has a 5 million plus population are eight in number viz. Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Pune. 
• Mumbai is the largest city in terms of population. But, the Delhi NCR is the largest urban agglomeration if we include its suburbs like Gurgaon, Faridabad, Noida etc. 

The reasons for the large urban sprawls are two fold

• the push factors in rural areas ie the poor conditions and lack of employment avenues prompt the rural population to out-migrate to urban areas.
• the pull factors in urban areas ie better employment avenues and living conditions attract the rural population to urban areas.

Concerns:

• Uneven growth of urban areas.
• Institutional and structural failures that result from poor planning.
• Growth of slums that are deprived of legal recognition and hence neglected.
• Deterioration of environment and quality of life.

Programmes/policies

• AMRUT (Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation) - An urban renewal mission, (replacing JNNURM) with a special focus on a healthy environment covering 500 cities.
• Smart Cities mission - developing 100 select smart cities by improving urban services and infrastructure management.
• Housing for All or Pradhan Mantri Aawaas Yojana - 2 crore homes to be made available by 2020, especially for the weaker sections in the slums.
• Shyamaprasad Mukherjee Rurban Mission - Providing basic infrastructure and community facilities  in rural areas. This would replace the earlier PURA (Providing Urban amenities in Rural Areas)

India Population - the age structure

Topic : Demographics (Prelims)/ Population and associated issues (Mains GS Paper I)

While the last article spoke about population growth, here we discuss about the composition of Indian population. We will be doing the analysis with the help of the available statistical data. If for the last article we used the Sample Registration System, here we will depend upon the Census - 2011. The main idea of this article would be the age-based classification of Indian population and the related implications.

On the basis of age, the population can be classified into three :

• Child population
• Working age population
• Old age population

Child population

Age : 0 - 14 years.

Percentage of total population(Census 2011)  - 31%

But this is very high in the Northern states of Bihar (40%) and Uttar Pradesh (36%), This generally follows from the high birth rate (CBR) in the above states. 

Concerns :

1. Child mortality - The Under 5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) in India is 49, short of the MDG goal of 42. The EAG + Assam are the worst performers while the South and the West are showing better indicators. The details of this issue given in the previous article.

2. Health and nutrition- A majority of health and malnutrition issues stem from the lack of proper care during pregnancy, birth and the infant stage. Hence health includes the reproductive health of the mother and the child health ie Reproductive and Child Health (RCH).

Another issue is marriage at a very young age, leading to pregnancy during the adolescent age. Adolescent Fertility Rate (AFR) or the number of births per 1000 women in the age-group 15-19 years is 32.45 according to a World Bank report of 2013.

On malnutrition, the National Family Health Survey(NFHS) gives the most authentic data. But the latest data (NFHS-4) is yet to be released. But the provisional data available with the Ministry of Women and Child Development indicates that India has drastically reduced the number of under-weight, stunted and wasted children from the 2005-06 levels. Also the number of infants below 6 months who are exclusively breastfed has dramatically shot up.

Data	2005 – 06	2013 - 14
Under-weight (< 5 yrs)	43.5	30.1
Stunted (< 5 yrs)	47.9	38.8
Wasted  (< 5 yrs)	20	15
Infants exclusively breastfed	46.4	71.6

Stunted - Shorter than standard height identified by WHO.

Wasted - low weight for height.

4. Drinking water and sanitation - Lack of proper sanitation facilities and contaminated water is leading to diseases like tropical enteropathy and diarrhoea. This leads to lack of proper absorption of food. Thus, even though nutritious food is given, the child may suffer from malnutrition.

5. Education - includes Early Childhood Care & Education (ECCE) followed by Primary Education.
Early childhood is defined as the period from conception through eight years of age. It is during the early years that children develop the cognitive, physical, social and emotional skills that they need to succeed in life. In India, particular focus is given to children in the age group 0 - 6 years.
After this comes the primary education, that is for children in the age group of 6 - 14 years.
The concern here are the poor facilities and a low quality of primary education. The Annual Survey of Education Report (ASER) has outlined substandard learning level among children in primary schools.

Programmes/policies:
Here are a few initiatives to plug the gaps in this sector.

• Reproductive and Child Health (RCH) - under NRHM - Infant and young child breast feeding
• Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS) - Nutrition for both children and pregnant mothers. Pre-school education in the category 3-6 years.
• Swachh Bharath Abhiyaan - to achieve complete sanitation and clean drinking water.
• Right to Education Act - Free and compulsory education for all children in the age group 6 - 14 years.
• Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan - Universalisation of primary education ie from Class I to VIII, and ensuring nutrition of children.

Working age population

Age : 15 - 64 years
Percentage of total population(Census 2011)  - 64%
(some latest official documents refer to the working age as 15 - 59 years and the corresponding proportion is 62%)
This includes the population involved in economic activity. India has the greatest number in this class. In other words, we can tell India currently has a good demographic dividend.
Demographic dividend - The proportion of the working age population among the total.
As per the UNFPA it means the economic growth potential that can result when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older).
Youth population - Current median age (or the average) of India is 24 years and India is assumed to have the largest youth population by the year 2020. Again region-wise differences exist. Median age in Northern states is 21 while in Southern states like Kerala and TN it is around 31, almost a 10 year age gap. The northern states seems to have a younger population including children.

Concerns :

1. Education  - Low enrollment and lack of quality in secondary (Class IX - XII) and higher education ( graduation and above).
Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) - It denotes the total enrollment in higher education among the population in the age group of 18 - 23 years. India currently has a GER is 20.4 (according to the All India Survey on Higher Education by the Ministry of Human Resources and Development) that is very low.

2. Skill development - Majority of youth population is uneducated and unskilled. They end up in the informal sector like construction. This large section need to be given formal education and training.
Among the formally trained people, 63% from Southern and Western states like Kerala, Maharashtra, and TN according to  the "State of urban youth of India 2012" report.

Programmes/policies:

• Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyaan (RMSA) - providing universal access to secondary level education by 2017.
• Rashtriya Uchhathar Shiksha Abhiyaan (RUSA) - Improving the GER (in higher education) to 30% by 2020.
• National Policy on Skill Development and Entrepreneurship 2015( otherwise known as "Skill India") - to remove the disconnect between the demand and supply of skilled man-power under a separate ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship.

Old age population

The Census has considered those above 60 years (rather than 65 years) as old aged. This is in line with the retirement age in formal employment.
Age group - Above 60 years.
Percentage of total population (Census 2011) - 8.5%
Again there are state-wise differences. Kerala with an elderly population of 13% tops the list while the Northern states figure at the end. According to the "Report on the Status of Elderly"  compiled jointly by the UNFPA and HelpAge India International, people aged above 60 yrs in India is currently 100 million and this would become 323 million by 2050, constituting one-fifth of the total population by then.

Concerns:

1. Health - Lack of facilities - both clinical and community - to treat age-related problems.

2. Social protection - Lack of finance post working age, due to absence of pension. The current pension schemes (old-age pension, widow pension, disability pension) involves very low amounts and are not properly targeted. The old-aged are further subjected to harassment by their relatives or others. The women are at a greater risk, since majority of them are dependent on their male counter-parts throughout their life-time.

3. Isolation - This need to be read together with the nuclearisation of families. Census 2011 point out that the number of households has increased substantially in the last decade, and the number of persons per household has come down substantially. There is no emotional support for the old-aged in such a situation.

Programmes/policies :

• Maintenance and Welfare of Parents and Senior Citizen Act, 2007 - to claim monthly maintenance for parents and senior citizens.
• National Programme for the Health-Care of the Elderly (NPHCE) - to provide preventive, curative and rehabilitative services to the elderly persons at various level of health care delivery system of the country.
• Atal Pension Yojana - for citizens in the unorganised sector after 60 years of age. The earlier Swavalamban scheme to be merged.

In short, the Government has its task cut out for transforming a favourable demographic dividend into a grand success. This requires timely interventions in all the age-groups. Thus the current situation presents both a crisis and an opportunity. A well handled crisis becomes an opportunity while a mis-handled opportunity becomes a crisis. Hence it is up to us to choose among these.

Population growth - the features and factors

Topic : Demographics (Prelims)/Population and associated issues (Mains GS Paper I)

Now let us do a little bit of data mining. Population studies comes with chunks of information that is quite difficult to analyse. The biggest problem is what sources to depend upon. The best method is to use the latest official data for your analysis. I would suggest the Census of India, the Sample Registration System (SRS), and the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) as the documents to depend upon.(the recently released Socio-Economic Caste Census also seems to be a good one). But since they come up with a lot of raw data, the challenge is to choose the useful information and to interpret those.  

To begin with, let us study about the various dimensions of the population growth in India.  As a matter of fact, India recorded a population of 127,42,39769 on last July 11 ie the World Population Day. With a growth-rate of 1.6 per cent a year, she is set to become the most populous nation overtaking China by the year 2031. 

Phases of population growth - The democratic transition model.

The growth rate of population is characterised by 3 main parameters :

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) : the number of live births occurring per 1,000 mid-year total population, in a given geographical area.

Crude Death Rate (CDR) : the number of deaths occurring per 1,000 mid-year total population, in a given geographical area.

Natural Change (NC) : CBR - CDR (measured per 1000 population). This denotes the net increase in population.

The different phases of population growth have been depicted in the following model.

Phase I - High stationary. Both CBR and CDR high and almost equal.

Phase II - Early expanding. Declining CDR on account of better health facilities that improves the life expectancy of the most vulnerable demographic group - children. But CBR remains the same since it requires behavioural changes for its control. This phase is marked by a rapid increase in population.

Phase III - Late expanding. CBR declines on account of better economic conditions, improved women's status and access to contraception. Still it is considerably higher than CDR resulting in a moderate population growth.

Phase IV - Low stationary. The population stabilises with both CBR and CDR being equal and low.

Now where is India placed in this model. For this analysis, we consider the decadal growth rate of population (ie increase over a 10 year period that coincides with the Census).

Phase I -  the period till 1920 when the decadal growth was either very low or even negative due to factors such as famines and epidemics.

Phase II - 1920 - 1980. Though slow in the initial decades, population increased at a rapid pace with the highest decadal growth of 24.80 during the 1961-71 period. 

Phase III - After 1980, the rate has been steadily declining and has reached 17.64 in the 2001-2011 period. 

Thus we can say that India is in  the IIIrd Phase of Democratic Transition. It is assumed that the population will get stabilised and reaches Phase IV by 2045. But a few are also arguing that this would get delayed further by a decade.

Determining growth - the alternate method

There is another way to determine population growth using the following two parameters:

Total Fertiltity Rate (TFR) : the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age.

Replacement Rate (RR) : the number of children each woman needs to have to maintain current population levels or what is known as zero population growth for her and her partner. In developed countries, the necessary replacement rate is about 2.1. The extra .1 child per woman is due to the potential for death and those who choose or are unable to have children. In less developed countries, the replacement rate is around 2.3 due to higher childhood and adult death rates.

Now Growth Rate can be approximately the difference between TFR and RR. This implies that as the TFR approaches the RR, the population is assumed to be stabilised. 

In India, the Sample Registration System gives the official data for birth, death and fertility rates. According to SRS-2013, the TFR in India is 2.3. The good news is that all but nine states have achieved a rate below this. Most of the states in the south and west have low TFRs while the EAG (Empowered Action Group - includes the states of Bihar, MP, UP, Rajasthan, Odisha, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Uttarakhand) states plus Assam have the worst values. While West Bengal records the least TFR at 1.6, the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have values of 3.4 and 3.1 respectively. This implies that growth rate is high in many states in northern and eastern India, while it is low in the southern and western States.

Population stabilisation through the National Population Policy, 2000 (NPP)

The NPP was launched in 2000 with three broad objectives, which are as follows:

Immediate - Address the unmet needs of contraception, healthcare infrastructure and health personnel and to provide integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child health.

Unmet need represents those sexually active women, who do not want more children or want to delay the next child, but still do not have any access to any contraceptive methods. 

The methods include contraceptive pills, condoms and intra-uterine devices (copper T) for spacing between pregnancies while female and male sterilisation (known as tubectomy and vasectomy respectively) are two permanent techniques. The family planning techniques are skewed towards sterilisation, that too female sterilisation thus restricting the choices of an ordinary woman. In addition to the National Family Welfare Programme (NFWP) , the GoI has introduced the Reproductive and Child Health (RCH) to fill this anomaly. But, it requires a behavioural change through proper IEC (Information Education and Communication)

Medium-term - Bring TFR to replacement levels by 2010 through implementation of inter-sectoral operational strategies. This objective is yet to be achieved as TFR hovers around 2.3 now.

Long-term - Population stabilisation by 2045, at a level consistent with sustainable economic growth, social development and environmental protection.

Other factors affecting the population growth

Here we discuss three indicators that have a bearing on the population growth. However, they are better identified as socio-economic indicators of a region. 

1. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) - Number of infant deaths per 1000 live births. (Infant implies below one year age). 

2. Child Mortality Rate or Under 5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) - Number of child (under 5 years of age) deaths per 1000 live births.  

In India, southern and western States have been performing well while the EAG (Empowered Action Group) states and Assam have the worst indicators. As per the Sample Registration System (SRS) 2013, the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) of India is 40 per 1,000 live births while the Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR)  is 49 per 1,000 live births. The Millennium Development Goal - 4 (MDG 4) envisages to reduce child mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. For India, the target is an IMR of 29 and an U5MR of 42. Considering the current levels, India will fall short of its targets.

But 15 States/UTs have already achieved IMR of 29 while 11 have achieved U5MR of 42. Kerala tops in both the indicators, with a value 12 and 14 respectively, while the states of Assam and Madhya Pradesh are the worst performers in both the categories.

Another important observation is that the neo-natal deaths (ie. below one month) account for around 56 per cent of Under-5 deaths in India which is much higher than the global average of 44 per cent. The progress in reduction of neo-natal mortality (below one month) has been slow and this is affecting India's achievements in the other brackets. As per the “State of the World’s Mothers Report, 2013” , India carries the greatest "birthday mortality risk" with more than three lakh newborns dying on their first day, every year.

The major causes of neonatal deaths are Infections such as Pneumonia, Septicemia and Umbilical Cord infection; prematurity i.e birth of newborn before 37 weeks of gestation and Asphyxia i.e. inability to breathe immediately after birth that leads to lack of oxygen.

The major causes of child and infant mortality are neonatal causes, pneumonia  and diarrhoeal diseases

3. Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) - annual number of female deaths per 100,000 live births from any cause related to or aggravated by pregnancy or its management (excluding accidental or incidental causes). The age bracket is generally 15-49 years.

As per the SRS 2012, which is the latest available data, the Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) in India is 178. The Millennium Development Goal - 5 (MDG 5) envisages to reduce maternal mortality rate by three-fourths between 1990 and 2015. In the case of India, this transforms into an MMR of 109 by the end of 2015 which remains an impossible task considering the current levels.

But three states - Kerala, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have achieved the goal. While Kerala tops the list with a value of 66, Assam languishes at the end.

The major medical causes of maternal deaths are haemorrhage, Sepsis, Abortion, Hypertensive disorders, Obstructed labor and “other causes”  like anaemia

Besides this, some of the socio economic determinants of infant, child and maternal mortality are illiteracy, low socio-economic status, early age of marriage, lack of women empowerment, poor environmental conditions e.g. sanitation, hygiene etc, lack of potable water, high parity, preference for home deliveries by family members or village dai and poor access to health facilities etc.

Under National Health Mission (which has been formed by integrating NRHM and NUHM), key steps have been taken to reduce IMR, U5MR and MMR. The major programmes are :

Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) - Promotion of institutional deliveries.

Janani Shishu Suraksha Karyakram - To supplement cash assitance under JSY to mitigate the burden of out of pocket expense incurred by mother and new-born

Navjaat Shishu Suraksha Karyakram - To promote basic new-born care and resuscitation

Integrated Management of Neo-natal and Childhood Illness (IMNCI)

India faces a double challenge - of stabilising the population, and ensuring that they grow healthy. Currently the population is stuck up in a vicious cycle of weak mothers giving birth to weak children. This trend need to be done away with, to achieve a healthy population that would steer the nation to glory.

Next : The composition of Indian population